What is runway?
Runway is your financial horizon expressed in time: how long can you sustain your current lifestyle given your current reserves and expected income? Peil calculates this in the Financial Lab and shows it as a number of months.
Runway isn't about worst-case survival — it's about clarity. Knowing you have 8 months of runway at your current pace feels very different from not knowing at all.
Three scenarios
Peil models three scenarios simultaneously and shows them as three curves in the Lab:
- Pessimistic — based only on revenue you've already received. What happens if nothing more comes in?
- Realistic — based on your current pace. Peil extrapolates your recent revenue trend forward.
- Optimistic — slightly above your current pace. A mild upside scenario.
These three curves give you a band rather than a single number, which is more honest about the uncertainty inherent in freelance income.
Reserve decomposition
Your runway is determined not just by how much you earn, but by how much of your revenue is already spoken for. Peil breaks down your reserves into five components:
- Tax reserve — automatically calculated based on your projected income and Dutch tax rules. Adjustable if you want to use your own estimate.
- Buffer — a free safety margin, default 15% of revenue. This is yours to adjust — think of it as the cushion that absorbs unexpected expenses or a slow month.
- Provisions — disability insurance premium (AOV) and pension savings. These are the long-term protections you're funding yourself as a freelancer.
- Business overhead — your recurring fixed costs: software subscriptions, phone, office, professional fees, and so on.
- Disposable income — the monthly net amount you want available for personal expenses. This is what you're working toward.
The runway calculation shows how long you can keep meeting all five of these commitments given your projected revenue.
Adjusting scenarios live
The ScenarioBar in the Financial Lab lets you adjust key variables and watch the runway curves update in real time:
- Hourly rate
- Hours per week
- AOV premium
- Pension allocation
- Buffer percentage
This is where Peil earns its name as an orientation tool. You're not filling in a spreadsheet; you're exploring a live model of your financial position. Raise your rate by €10 and see what it does to your runway. Cut your hours by 5 per week and see when your horizon shifts.
Disposable income
Set the monthly net you want to take home in your settings or the Lab. Peil uses this as the benchmark for "on track." If your current trajectory doesn't support your disposable income target, the Lab will show you the gap and — via the ScenarioBar — let you explore what it would take to close it.
Horizon vs. runway
Peil uses both terms but they describe slightly different views:
- Runway — how many months you can sustain your current setup before reserves run out, assuming various revenue scenarios.
- Horizon — how your net income develops month by month over the coming year. A more granular, timeline view of the same underlying model.
Both are in the Financial Lab. The runway view is useful for big-picture checks; the horizon view is useful when you want to understand what a specific month looks like.
When to use it
Runway is most useful at moments of transition or uncertainty:
- A quiet period (summer slowdown, between projects)
- Considering a rate increase or a new client arrangement
- Planning parental leave or an extended break
- Deciding how much to hold in your business account vs. withdraw
- A regular monthly financial check-in to make sure you're still on course
Open the Financial Lab to explore your runway.